SINGAPORE in RECESSION !!!

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PM Lee: Don't be depressed

Workers, employers urged to have sense of balance when dealing with retrenchments

Channel NewsAsia - Monday, March 2

HUA HIN, Thailand : Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has urged workers and employers to have a sense of balance when dealing with retrenchment forecasts during these difficult economic times.

He added that despite the gloom, Singapore is not in a bad position.

Mr Lee said this during his interview with Singapore media at the end of the ASEAN Summit in Hua Hin on Sunday.

There have been several reports recently of retrenchment forecasts in Singapore this year, with the latest being from DBS Bank which put the figure at 99,000.

This prompted some ministers to emphasise the need to be focused and not be overwhelmed by the numbers.

Mr lee said: "Everyday we see bad news, another 50 here, another 100 there, and such and such job cuts. After a while, even if you were not depressed, we become depressed.

"There are things happening which are positive, there are things which will turn good in time, there are things in the pipeline; the IR (integrated resort) is coming along, two IRs are both coming along. Every time I drive past the Marina, I watch to see whether another level has come up or not and it has nearly reach the top now."

Mr Lee stressed Singapore has the resources and has done the right things with this year’s Budget.

He said: "I know people say why didn’t you help the households more directly. But the right way to help people now is not to give them vouchers or coupons to spend, but to help them keep their jobs, and this is where the emphasis of the Budget was, and that is something which we have to explain to the people and help them to understand."

On investments by the Government Investment Corporation of Singapore, Mr Lee said they are long—term in nature. In bad years, there would be shrinkage, but overall they have performed well.

He said: "If you jump up and down and you want to break even and make money every quarter, you will not be able to have a sensible policy. You will end up not protecting your value, you cannot discuss Citigroup as Citigroup.

"We have to look at the whole portfolio and overall what is the performance, some ups and some downs, some good years, some bad years and overall over 20 years, it has done well."

Mr Lee said how soon Singapore will recover from this downturn will depend on the world.

What is important now is for the country to remain stable and emerge as a strong economy when the recovery comes. — CNA/ms

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MM Lee warns Singapore’s GDP could shrink by 8% this year

Channel NewsAsia - Thursday, March 5

SINGAPORE: Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew has warned that Singapore’s GDP could contract by 8 per cent during this global downturn, but he is confident that the country will recover faster than other nations.

Singapore has projected that its economy will contract by 2 per cent to 5 per cent this year.

Mr Lee was speaking on Wednesday to business leaders at a dialogue session, organised by news information company Thomson Reuters.

The US, Europe and Japan economies need to recover before the rest can see a pickup, and once that happens, the minister mentor said Singapore will be able to bounce back much faster because three and a quarter times of the country’s GDP is in external trade.

He also said that the city—state has its reserves to thank for in surviving this economic crisis and recounted his conversation with the head of the US National Economic Council, Larry Summers.

"I looked at him and said, ’Do you think we’re an ordinary country, we’re a little island? We built this enormous super structure through sheer work and with our wits, but we must expect in a nature of the free market that there will be such a crash. We never expected it so soon or so drastic," he said.

Mr Lee added that Singapore sets aside half of its earnings every year in good times. "We saved for the rainy day and the rains have come."

He also commented on the recent change in leadership at investment company Temasek Holdings, which saw its CEO and executive director Ho Ching stepping down after six years at the helm.

Ms Ho will be officially replaced by Mr Charles W. Goodyear on October 1, after a seven—month transition period.

Mr Lee, who is also the chairman of the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) said there was a cabinet paper explaining why Ms Ho wanted to step down.

"GIC takes a very conservative approach — low risk, low returns. Temasek goes in for higher rewards, higher risk, and they need a very dynamic team to keep nimble to move with the market and move faster than the market.

"Ho Ching has been doing this for many years now and she thinks it’s a good time to make a change. I don’t think it’s got anything to do with the failed investments in banking. This is part of the ups and downs of any investor," Mr Lee added.

During this financial downturn, Mr Lee expects industries like pharmaceuticals to stay resilient.

That prompted the moderator to ask if he was equally bullish about the casinos in Singapore’s upcoming integrated resorts, which drew some laughter.

"I like your tie — it’s got decks of cards on it, lots of money symbols," the moderator commented.

"Yeah," the minister mentor answered. "This is cheering for our integrated resort. It was given to me by Steve Forbes and I think that will provide for 10,000 jobs, another 10,000 in Genting in Sentosa — that should increase the tourist revenue, conventions and so on."

Mr Lee added that the state of the global economy will become clearer in about nine months when the US economy is able to see the effects of its economic policies.

— CNA/so

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Global recession could last til end 2010 or longer: report

AFP - Sunday, March 8

NEW DELHI (AFP) - - The US professor nicknamed "Dr. Doom" for forecasting the financial crisis has said the global recession will last all of this year and probably next, India's Mail Today reported Saturday.

New York University professor Nouriel Roubini said that in the best-case scenario, the recession will continue through 2010 in advanced economies while job losses will persist for an additional year, the paper reported.

He said world governments are falling behind the curve in tackling the crisis with "policymakers moving in the right direction -- but (doing) too little too late."

Speaking at a New Delhi conference, Roubini warned that the United States, Europe and Japan must "get their act together" to avoid the global economy sinking further.

"People were hoping it would be a V-shaped recession -- a sharp fall, followed by an equally quick recovery," he said.

"But we are in the middle of an ugly U-shaped recession," he said Friday.

Roubini said the bottom of the 'U' -- the length of time the world economy will continue to contract -- would last a minimum of three years starting from December 2007.

But he said there was a "one-in-three chance" that recession would turn into an 'L' -- a prolonged period of stagnation or shrinking output, coupled with falling prices as demand dries up.

As early as 2005, Roubini said US home prices were riding a speculative wave that would soon sink the economy, but was dismissed as a doomsayer.

In Delhi, he said the problems of the financial system and financial institutions were getting worse, but that the outlook could be improved by governments taking charge of insolvent banks, cleaning them up and then selling them to private investors.

"People say when the US sneezes, the rest of the world catches cold. In this case, the US is just not sneezing, it has a severe case of chronic pneumonia."

"We all sink or swim together," he said, adding there is no way policy action in emerging economic giants India and China can pull the global economy out of the slump.

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World faces 'Great Recession': IMF chief

AFP - Wednesday, March 11

PARIS (AFP) - - The world is now in the grip of the "Great Recession" and economic growth could dip below zero in 2009, the head of the IMF warned on Tuesday, as stock markets hit their lowest levels in decades.

As China grappled with deflation, Germany was hit by an exports slump in and investment guru Warren Buffett said the US economy has "fallen off a cliff", calls for coordinated international action to tackle the downturn were growing.

The European Union meanwhile called on the IMF's resources for struggling nations to be doubled as the fund's chief warned the crisis risks throwing millions of Africans back into poverty.

Speaking at a gathering of African finance ministers in the Tanzanian capital Dar es Salaam, IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said they were meeting at a "critical juncture in history.

"The global financial crisis, that might now be called the great recession, provides a sobering backdrop to our conference. The IMF expects global growth to slow below zero this year, the worst performance in most of our lifetimes," he said.

"Even though the crisis has been slow in reaching Africa's shores, we all know that it's coming and its impact will be severe.

"And the threat is not only economic, there is a real risk that millions will be thrown back into poverty," he added.

It is the first time that Strauss-Kahn, who said last week he saw no chance of a global recovery before 2010, had predicted an actual global contraction.

The conference was expected to hear appeals not to cut levels of foreign aid at a time when budgets are shrinking.

The impact of the crisis, meanwhile, on one of the world's wealthiest countries was highlighted by German figures showing its exports plunged 20.7 percent in January as a result of a reduction in demand.

The heavily export-driven German economy, the largest in Europe, is suffering its worst recession in six decades, with the government expecting output to shrink 2.25 percent this year.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said last week that he expected the world's third-largest economy to meet a target of eight percent growth this year but news that it is now experiencing deflation could put that goal at risk.

China's statistics bureau said consumer prices -- including food, clothes and fuel -- were 1.6 percent cheaper in February than a year earlier, the first such fall since December 2002.

Elsewhere in Asia, Japan's Nikkei stock index closed down 0.44 percent to 7,054.98 points after another sell-off on Wall Street, hitting the lowest level since October 1982 for a second straight day.

US stocks tumbled in choppy trade to 12-year lows overnight, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 1.21 percent to 6,547.05 points.

"I've never seen Americans more fearful," Buffett, one of the world's richest men, said in a CNBC television interview.

"It takes five minutes to become fearful, much more time to regain confidence. The system does not work without confidence."

British finance minister Alistair Darling, whose country will host a summit of the G20 world powers focusing on the crisis next month, said governments "must be prepared to do more."

"In these extraordinary times it is essential that governments act together" Darling wrote in the Guardian newspaper.

His comments, ahead of an EU finance ministers meeting Tuesday, again highlighted differences between world powers ahead of the G20 summit.

After a eurozone finance ministers' meeting Monday, German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck said that no further measures were planned, adding: "We should concentrate on measures that have already been decided."

At Tuesday's meeting, the European Union was expected to call for the IMF's resources for struggling nations to be doubled to 500 billion dollars (396 billion euros), a draft document showed.

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EDB’s Prep—Up scheme to create 100 new jobs in 2009

Channel NewsAsia - Thursday, March 12

SINGAPORE: The pharmaceutical sector will be the first to benefit from the Prep—Up (Preparing for the Upturn) scheme recently launched by the Economic Development Board (EDB).

All in, some 2,000 jobs are expected to be created under the initiative, with 100 going to the pharmaceutical sector this year.

The S$100 million initiative launched on January 19 is aimed at helping businesses cope with manpower expenses and co—share labour costs in the current challenging environment.

EDB said it does not have a target time frame to create these jobs.

Director, Biomedical Sciences, EDB, Beh Kian Teik, said: "The programme basically allows the companies and Singapore to widen our lead in our capabilities, and widen our lead in becoming the trusted and best in manufacturing — particularly in biomedical/pharmaceutical manufacturing.

"There are other areas... but the first area we wanted to start off with was in part pharmaceutical manufacturing."

The pharmaceutical sector is expected to employ some 6,000 people in Singapore by 2011 when new investments come onstream, up from 1,900 in 2000. And it is looking to hire not just chemical engineers, but professionals from other industries.

Mr Beh said: "When we think about this sector, it is not just about the chemical engineers who are working on the main process itself. There are tremendous opportunities beyond these technical engineers.

"It is often a myth that only if you are trained as a chemical engineer then can you enter the industry, but the opportunities are immense because even if you are not trained, the job scope is quite vast."

The EDB also anticipates that there will be a growing number of people looking to change career path to the biomedical sector.

To help those job seekers find out more about the sector, EDB is working with the Nanyang Technological University (NTU) and National University of Singapore (NUS) to bring discussion panel Bio Biz to the public for the first time at the end of this month, attracting some 800 people.

The discussion panel will take place on the March 28. Bio Biz has been run for the past few years by NTU and NUS alumni and is usually only for students of the respective universities.

— CNA/yt

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Jobseekers say more than 4 months needed to get new job

Channel NewsAsia - Thursday, March 12

SINGAPORE: Eight in 10 jobseekers from more than 85 countries around the world predicted it would take unemployed workers more than four months to find a new job in today’s turbulent market.

And four in 10 said the process might take seven months or even longer.

This is according to a recent survey of some 1,000 unemployed executives by the Korn/Ferry Institute, a talent management and leadership research firm.

Forty—three per cent of executives surveyed said they are keen on pursuing studies during the downturn.

Most jobless executives looking at educational opportunities were considering MBAs or other advanced degrees.

The survey also found that while 55 per cent of the jobseekers spent the majority of their time between jobs looking for new opportunities, one in four focused their time on professional development.

One in 10 chose to spend time more leisurely with family and friends, while seven per cent went on a vacation.

— CNA/yt

[iskay]

Here's something to cheer about... Electricity Tariff down from 01 Apr.

http://www.spservices.sg/news/PressRelease_6-Mar-09.pdf

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Layoff survival: Ways to keep your skills sharp

By EILEEN AJ CONNELLY, AP Personal Finance Writer AP - Thursday, March 12

NEW YORK - Losing a job can mean losing more than just a paycheck. Without some planning, an extended layoff can cause job skills to fade and make someone less attractive to potential employers.

And it's not just the unemployed 8.1 percent of the workforce that has to worry about a personal brain drain. Add in those working part time or who have given up looking for a job, and the Labor Department says 14.8 percent of the U.S. work force is "underutilized."

Whether they can speak a foreign language or analyze financial spreadsheets as easily as sports statistics, those people need to find ways to keep their skills up.

"Maintaining your skills and advancing your skills is critical to advancing if you're employed, and getting a new job if you're unemployed," said Dean Tracy, a recruiter and career coach in San Ramon, Calif.

But how do you stay on top of your field when you've been downsized? Tracy and other career counseling experts identified three potential avenues: continuing education, professional organizations and volunteering.

CONTINUING EDUCATION

Even for those who are not out of work, learning new skills or brushing up old ones is always beneficial. Several experts said classes that offer certifications are particularly helpful.

"What it tells the employer is, you're not sitting around wondering what to do next, you're taking the initiative," said Tracy. Those who can't attend a class should look for online training.

Technology and business models have evolved so rapidly that anyone who got their education 10 or more years ago is no longer current in the market, said Don Straits, president of the Auburn, Calif.-based executive search firm Corporate Warriors: "That MBA from Stanford that you got in 1978 or 1980? That and a dollar will get you a cup of coffee."

Underscoring that idea, Straits said it is vital for today's workers to take advantage of Web-based technologies. "I won't say they need to be Twittering," he said, referring to the fast-growing service through which users to send out short messages. "But they do need to be connected or involved in Web 2.0. It's not just a matter of surfing the Web any more."

Social networking, he said, is a good place to get acquainted with the expanding possibilities online. It's an area that is easily self-taught, and one that can have numerous applications once you're back in the workplace. As a bonus, establishing a network of contacts can also help during a job hunt. Pointing to a 24-year-old staffer at his company who has 4,000 "friends" on MySpace and 300 connections on LinkedIn, Straits said, "He will never have a problem connecting to a position."

Teaching: Experts in using resources like Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn may be able to help others by teaching a class or leading a workshop for a professional organization. Another possibility is to seek an adjunct faculty position at a local college.

"Having a faculty appointment is never a bad thing," said Roy Cohen, a master coach for The Five O'Clock Club, a New York-based career coaching network. An added plus: "You have access to other faculty members you can network with."

PROFESSIONAL ORGANIZATIONS

Beyond the potential for teaching fellow members, professional organizations typically offer access to broader workshops and seminars. But Straits said it's important not only to join, but to be active in professional groups. "One of the best jobs in any association is the membership chairman," he said, "because you are going to get to know every single company or individual in that organization."

Professional organizations also often need help with tasks like maintaining their Web sites or organizing their finances, providing more opportunities to put languishing skills to use.

VOLUNTEERING

Donating your time can also add some interest to a resume and demonstrate a commitment to community that may impress a potential employer.

Tracy says it's a mistake to rule out listing a volunteer position on your resume: "Just because you got paid or didn't get paid does not diminish the importance of that being a job that enables you to enhance your skills."

If you're searching for a suitable spot, look for organizations that connect volunteers with nonprofits needing expert help. The Taproot Foundation is one national group that provides pro bono help with things like strategic planning, annual report preparation and marketing.

Taproot recruitment manager Melanie Damm said the group has seen a huge influx of volunteers in the past six months. Though at times Taproot had been limited by the number of pro bono consultants it could recruit, now there is a bit of a problem finding projects for all the volunteers in some cities. But, she said, "we still have shortages for very specific sorts of skill sets" like Web site development and graphic design.

Being open to working as an unpaid intern at a for-profit company, or volunteering to help on a specific project, may get you in the door. Cohen, of The Five O'Clock Club, has a client who approached a company offering to be an apprentice that was accepted. "They were very taken with his strategy," he said.

It's a tactic that worked for Shawn Graham, the director of MBA career services at the University of Pittsburgh and author of the book, "Courting Your Career." In 1997, he was downsized by the retail company he worked for and decided to try the career counseling field. He approached three colleges seeking to volunteer in their career offices, and one took him up on the offer. A few months later, he was given a paid spot there, and has since moved up in the field by working at two other universities.

Graham said, "Sometimes just calling up and offering to help on a project can be the toehold to get into the organization."

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Singapore recession to deepen before Q4 rebound: survey

Channel NewsAsia - Monday, March 16

SINGAPORE — Singapore is expected to slide deeper into recession this year before staging a weak recovery in the final quarter and registering mild growth in 2010, a central bank survey showed Monday.

Gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to fall 8.5 percent in the quarter to March from a year ago, more than double the 4.2 percent shrinkage in the fourth quarter of 2008, according to the survey of professional economists.

Singapore slipped into recession in the third quarter of last year ahead of its Asian neighbours.

The GDP decline would likely continue in the second and third quarters this year at 6.9 percent and 4.6 percent, respectively, before output grows at 0.5 percent in the final three months, the survey showed.

For 2009, the economy was expected to shrink by 4.9 percent —— just within the government’s forecast contraction range of 2.0 and 5.0 percent —— which would make it the worst recession since independence in 1965.

A recovery is expected in 2010, with the economists forecasting an average of 3.3 percent growth, the poll showed.

Singapore’s trade—driven economy grew just 1.1 percent last year from 7.8 percent in 2007 after a worldwide economic downturn weakened demand for its exports and fewer travellers visited the country.

Manufacturing is likely to bear the brunt of the downturn, with the sector forecast to fall by 19.6 percent in the first quarter this year, followed by the financial services sector, which is expected to drop 11 percent.

Exports are projected to plunge 27.4 percent during the quarter, according to the survey of 20 professional economists and analysts.

Singapore’s exports declined by 35 percent, the largest amount on record, in January from a year earlier.

February figures will be released on Tuesday, with DBS Bank saying it expects exports to have fallen 23.6 percent year—on—year.

"The general expectation is that it will be another dreadful month," it said in a market commentary.

Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew warned this month that GDP may contract by as much as 10 percent this year if exports continue to fall sharply. — AFP/vm

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MM Lee: 2-3 years to get out of crisis

The 'optimistic scenario'

Channel NewsAsia - Saturday, March 21

SINGAPORE: In 25 years’ time, Singapore will be a country that reflects the state of the major powers and its Asian neighbours.

While the look and colour of its society might change, its major resource — talent — will remain a predominant issue, said Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew on Friday.

He was speaking to an audience of about 500 students, alumni and invited guests at a National University of Singapore Society (NUSS) lecture on the topic of "Singapore and Singaporeans — Quarter Century From Now".

The evening started with Mr Lee officially opening the Alumni Complex at the university — the largest graduate club in the country.

During the dialogue, he said Singapore’s future might have a different ethnic and demographic composition as many immigrants become new citizens and permanent residents.

But the main ethnic groups would still be the Chinese, Malays and Indians. The population would also be more educated.

Mr Lee said: "We are caught in a bind — we’ve got to decide this is our country, our society and we must remain the majority. Yes, we will take immigrants; yes, we will take talented people, but we must be the majority.

"Otherwise, they will change us if they are the majority. So I think 25 years from now, Singapore will be more cosmopolitan because we’ve got many people from China, India, Malaysia and from the region. We have European children doing National Service."

The minister mentor also painted "optimistic and pessimistic scenarios" of where the world and ASEAN would be. But he said the more likely outcome would be "somewhere in between".

On top of that, Mr Lee spoke about where Singapore’s economy could go from here.

"I cannot tell you what’s going to happen. I can say the optimistic scenario is in two or three years, we’re out of this (crisis). At the worst, four, five or six years. As the IMF said, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan are going to be hit. Why? Because we are export dependent.

"I’ve got economists saying you’ve got to change your system. Wall Street Journal has said, ’Oh, this won’t work, consume yourself’. Four million people to consume and keep an industry that supplies the world with top—end goods — it’s rubbish," he said.

On the political front, when asked what would happen to the country if there was a major shift of power, Mr Lee said he was not concerned as to which political party was in charge.

He said: "If you get capable people forming the next government, people who know what they have to do to make Singapore work, then I’m not worried. I’m not worried whether it’s PAP or SDP or whatever government.

"But I am worried about the quality of people who get into power. Integrity (is) crucial, (and) ability, experience and a willingness to do what is necessary for the people, and not for yourself."

CNA/so/ls

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Many apply but few get IR job

Resorts World to increase job openings in mid—2009

Channel NewsAsia - Saturday, March 21

SINGAPORE: Good news for jobseekers who are looking for jobs at the integrated resorts. Resorts World at Sentosa will ramp up its hiring from June.

William Fong, 46, was among the 20,000 people who applied for a job at Resorts Worlds recently.

The former assistant engineer was retrenched early this year. Now, the father of three has reasons to smile again.

He said: "After my first interview at Resorts World, they offered me a job as a slot technician. I feel glad that this company is really concerned about workers who are older and with lower qualifications."

Resorts World has received overwhelming response to its recruitment efforts — it receives up to 200 online applications everyday.

Resorts World currently has more than 800 job openings. So far, only 10 of those positions have been filled, but Resorts World is looking forward to hiring more employees soon.

So those who did not get the positions they had applied for should not fret.

Assistant vice—president of communications at Resorts World at Sentosa, Robin Goh, said: "What may happen is that we may look through their resumes, and if we find them a fit in other attractions we have, Universal Theme Park for example, we may refer them to the Universal team to do the selection."

Resorts World says it is committed to hiring Singaporeans for the 10,000 positions available.

— CNA/yt

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UBS to cut 240 jobs in Asia-Pacific as regions slow

Reuters - 2 hours 9 minutes ago

By Saeed Azhar

* Job cuts account for 3 pct of company's Asia-Pacific staff

* News comes as global private banks shed staff in Asia

SINGAPORE, April 14 - Swiss bank UBS <UBSN.VX> said it will cut 240 jobs in Asia-Pacific to cut costs, as Asian economies slow in a global financial crisis.

Earlier on Tuesday, banking sources told Reuters the cuts would be made mostly in the wealth management business at all staff levels and included 100 redundancies in Singapore, where UBS is a relatively strong player in private banking.

The cuts come two months after the Zurich-based bank brought former Credit Suisse boss Oswald Gruebel out of retirement to be installed as its new chief executive. [iD:nLQ256541]

Gruebel has recently signalled further cost cuts would be inevitable.

Many of UBS's competitors such as Citigroup <C.N> and Credit Suisse <CSGN.VX> have shed staff in Asia in the last few months as clients stay away from weak markets.

Global banks aggressively expanded in Asia in recent years to tap business as years of fast economic growth and buoyant markets created more millionaires in Asia than anywhere else.

The financial crisis has slashed revenue for many of the global banks as the rich shun financial products and markets.

A UBS spokeswoman in Singapore said the cuts were equivalent to about 3 percent of its staff in Asia. The bank managed about 130 billion Swiss francs in assets at the end of last year, according to company data.

The spokeswoman said the staff reduction was a last resort as UBS tries to manage costs due to challenging economic conditions.

Despite the cuts, UBS said Asia remains a "strategic priority" for the group" and a region it will continue to invest in.

Societe Generale <SOGN.PA> last month said it will cut around 10 percent of staff from its private banking arm in Asia excluding Japan.

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Singapore March exports down 17 pct but China buys more

Reuters - Tuesday, April 14

SINGAPORE, April 14 - Singapore's exports fell for the 11th straight month in March due to the global slowdown, but shipments to China rose for the second month running, offering signs that the world's third-largest economy may be headed for a recovery.

Non-oil exports fell 17 percent last month from a year earlier, after tumbling 23.8 percent in February and a record 34.9 percent plunge in January.

That and a record contraction in gross domestic product in the first quarter prompted the central bank to ease monetary policy to help the trade-dependent economy through the financial crisis. [iD:nSIN444077]

Shipments to China rose 14 percent in March to nearly S$1.5 billion , making it Singapore's No. 2 trading partner after Europe and relegating the United States to third place. Total exports to China rose 8 percent in February and fell 51.6 percent in January.

"The 17 percent drop in trade is a sign that exports are bottoming up, and consistent with the picture we've seen in major regional exporters like South Korea and Taiwan. China has also turned around," said David Cohen at Action Economics in Singapore.

"Taken together, it seems that the first quarter will be the worst and things will start to get better. The trade data is certainly encouraging."

Data released last week showed that China's exports and imports fell 17.1 percent in March from year-earlier levels, down for the fifth month in a row, but the government and economists saw signs in the data that the contraction in trade flows may be peaking. [iD:nPEK8623]

Singapore's Non-electronic, non-oil exports to China rose 30 percent in March after a 24 percent increase in February, led by higher shipments of ships and boats, food preparation and primary chemicals, trade promotion agency IE Singapore said.

March exports, valued at S$11.9 billion rose a seasonally adjusted and annualised 10.8 percent from the previous month after a revised 1.6 percent increase in February.

The slump in global demand for exports from trade-dependent Singapore had prompted the economy to contract a record 11.5 percent from a year earlier in the first quarter of 2009.

The country's gross domestic product in the first three months of the year fell at a seasonally adjusted, annualised pace of 19.7 percent. In the fourth quarter, the city state's economy contracted 4.2 percent from a year earlier and slumped 16.4 percent in annualised terms.

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Julius Baer hires Goldman, UBS bankers for Asia

Reuters - Tuesday, April 14

* Swiss bank in talks to hire experienced people

* Growth plans intact, 2009 to be tough year

SINGAPORE, April 14 - Swiss bank Julius Baer <BAER.VX> has hired two senior relationship managers in Singapore from Goldman Sachs and UBS as it expands its business of banking for Asia's rich in spite of the financial crisis.

Thio Tjia Hin was most recently an executive director at Goldman's <GS.N> private wealth management unit and Cindy Tang was at UBS <UBSN.VX>, where she was a director in its key clients team, the Swiss bank said in a statement.

Baer, which has its Southeast Asian centre in Singapore, said in 2007 it plans to boost its staff by over 100 staff by 2010-2011. The bank has more than 200 people in Singapore and Hong Kong.

Wilfried Kofmehl, head of Julius Baer Southeast Asia, told Reuters that the bank has slowed hiring because of the financial crisis, but is sticking to its long-term plan to expand its business in Asia. It will continue to hire experienced bankers, he said.

"We are actually in discussions with a few other very senior people in the market," he said. "Our growth plans are still on track. 2009 is a tough year, but we feel we can manage."

He did not reveal how much assets the bank was managing in Asia. Globally it had 352 billion Swiss francs in average assets under management at the end of 2008, down 10.6 percent from a year earlier.

Many of Julius Baer's competitors such as UBS <UBSN.VX> and Citigroup <C.N> have shed staff in Asia as clients stay away from markets for fear of losses. Societe Generale <SOGN.PA> last month said it will cut around 10 percent of staff from its private banking arm in Asia excluding Japan.

This is a reversal of a trend that peaked two years ago which saw private banks aggressively poaching bankers from each other. Years if fast economic growth and buoyant markets have created more millionaires in Asia than anywhere else.

Analysts have said profit at private banks is falling as the financial crisis slashed revenues from fees and financial product sales.

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Singapore unemployment rises to 3.2 pct in Q1

Reuters - Thursday, April 30

SINGAPORE, April 30 - Singapore's unemployment rate rose to a seasonally adjusted 3.2 percent in the first quarter amid the city-state's worst ever recession, from 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, preliminary government data showed on Thursday.

"Falling external demand has severely affected the manufacturing sector," the Ministry of Manpower said in a statement.

The manufacturing sector saw the largest contraction of employment in the first quarter of 2009 with a loss of nearly 20,000 jobs from the previous quarter. The construction and services sectors, however, saw an increase of 8,500 and 10,300 jobs respectively.

Unemployment is rising around the world as the global economic recession has wiped out demand for goods and services, prompting manufacturers to lay off their workers.

Most of the retrenchment in the first quarter came from the manufacturing sector, which laid off 9,000 workers, mainly in the electronics industry, the ministry said.

Southeast Asia's most open economy and the first to enter a recession in 2008, has been hit hard by the global downturn. The government expects the economy to shrink 6-9 percent this year.

Singapore's manufacturing sector, which accounts for about a quarter of the economy, should pick up slightly on the back of global restocking, but its key electronics sector may slip back as demand remains weak and new orders could go to lower-cost foreign rivals, the central bank said in a report on Wednesday.

[kueytoc]

Govt ups efforts to save jobs, workers !

Govt announces more programmes under SPUR to tackle economic crisis

Channel NewsAsia - Saturday, May 2

SINGAPORE: The government has announced three more schemes under the Skills Programme for Upgrading and Resilience (SPUR) to help workers.

At the same time, middle—income earners will get more help to tackle the economic crisis.

Speaking at the May Day Rally on Friday, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong also urged Singaporeans to plan for a prolonged downturn and prepare for a tough year ahead.

It’s the most difficult May Day Singapore has celebrated, Prime Minister Lee told some 1,500 union leaders, workers and employers at the annual rally.

Uppermost on the people’s minds — the state of the economy.

Mr Lee said: "There is no V—shaped; now the optimistic scenario is a U—shaped recovery, a deep U, a fat U, and if we are lucky, gradually recovering from the later part of this year or early next year.

"But if we are not lucky, it could be an L—shaped problem — economy is still shrinking, after a while it doesn’t shrink so fast, it stops shrinking, but it stays at the bottom a long time before slowly picking up again, no growth or poor growth for several years to come.

"Now we have a new problem which could be serious and that is swine flu which is going to affect the global economy and push growth down further, tourism, trade, more trouble for the world."

In Singapore, the focus has been on saving jobs. And Mr Lee said both the Jobs Credit and SPUR programmes are showing good results.

He said: "The Jobs Credit has helped to lower the cost of employing Singaporeans and their companies to look at many alternatives to retrenchment.

"SPUR also has been useful because it is not just a scheme but supported by a whole comprehensive system, WDA, E2i, the CDCs, the Continuing Education Centres — all the infrastructure we have been building over the last few years so that we would be ready for a crisis like this."

Companies have responded, with some 1,300 of them training more than 82,000 workers, and SPUR will be further improved.

The absentee payroll cap will be increased from the current $6 to $10 per hour to support the training for PMETs.

A Professional Skills Programme will also be launched to encourage companies to recruit PMETs and new graduates in growth sectors.

And there’s a new scheme called SPUR—JOBS to co—fund on—the—job training and job redesign, to encourage companies to recruit, retain and upgrade workers.

Mr Lee said union leaders can also play an important role in their efforts to upturn the downturn.

They can work closely with their employers to cut costs and save jobs.

They can also have regular dialogues with their members and workers to help them remain employable and also obtain training and retraining.

Mr Lee said he has also been meeting investors to persuade them to do more in Singapore.

They remain confident about Asia’s prospects and see Singapore playing a bigger role as they do more in Asia.

— CNA/ir

[kueytoc]

Survey shows S’poreans would take 42% pay cut

Channel NewsAsia - Monday, May 4

SINGAPORE: If they lost their jobs, Singaporeans on average think they would be able to cope without their main source of income for eight and a half months.

In survey findings that the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) hopes will guide the future calibration of social support for retrenched individuals, it was noted that younger people and the lower—income would be less resilient. For instance, there were more in their 20s and 30s, than in the older age groups, who would be able to cope for only up to six months.

Eight in 10 respondents would rely mainly on their personal savings.

But while just 31 per cent would step out of their comfort zone to take on any job, tellingly, respondents were on average willing to take a hefty 42—per—cent pay—cut in their next job, should they lose their current one (though the pain threshold for lower—income respondents was far lower at 34 per cent).

Very few people (5 to 7 per cent) would turn to the Government or welfare agencies for help; more (28 per cent) prefer the support of friends and family.

These findings, gathered from 817 Singaporeans and Permanent residents in mid—February, showed that Singapore residents were on the whole a fairly resilient lot, said IPS senior research fellow Gillian Koh. The study is the first of a series to study the perceptions of policies in Singapore.

On the Government’s Budget measures to help Singaporeans through the economic crisis, more believed that the country on the whole was better off as a result — than they believed the measures were helpful on a personal level.

Just 33 per cent felt they were personally better off with the measures, compared with 52 per cent feeling the country was in better stead.

Assistance has not eroded resilience

But overwhelmingly, 82 per cent of Singapore residents felt it was more important to take one’s own initiative to cope with the economic crisis — such as by cutting leisure spending and taking a pay cut — than to depend on the Government.

This sentiment was especially strong among the higher—income group. Just slightly fewer respondents (77 per cent) among the lower—income agreed, with Dr Koh noting that this group has benefited more from Government help.

Even so, the study concluded that while social assistance is still needed by some, "it has not eroded the general sense of self—reliance and the level of resilience" today.

The presence of foreigners in Singapore also came up for examination, and threw up another interesting disparity.

Seven in 10 respondents felt that having foreigners here made no difference to them economically during the crisis. Less than six per cent of any age or income group felt they were personally better off — yet overall, 34 per cent of respondents felt the country as a whole was better off.

The youngest and the low—income groups were more likely to say the country was "worse off" for having foreigners working here.

Overall, more than 50 per cent of the respondents indicated the crisis had made no difference to their savings, income, or employment.

But Dr Koh agreed that it would be interesting to see if perceptions change in a few months, giving how it is early days yet in the economic crisis.

"We’d need to anticipate impact if the crisis worsens," she said. — TODAY/fa

[kueytoc]

Singapore Airlines Q4 net profit plunges 92%

AFP - Friday, May 15

SINGAPORE (AFP) - - Singapore Airlines (SIA) said Thursday fourth quarter net profit dived 92 percent on year to 41.9 million Singapore dollars (28.5 million US) as the global slump hit passenger and cargo demand.

Net profit tumbled by 486 million dollars, SIA said in a statement, as revenue fell 19.1 percent to 3.32 billion dollars.

"The results reflect the severe deterioration in operating conditions in the fourth quarter," the carrier said in a statement.

It said "the decline in passenger and cargo carriage accelerated in the fourth quarter."

The profit was in line with a Dow Jones poll of analysts who had forecast SIA to earn 40 million dollars during the quarter.

SIA said it also lost 543 million dollars from hedging on fuel contracts when jet fuel prices were higher. Fuel costs were the airline's biggest expense.

The global airline industry has been hammered by the global economic downturn, which has crimped business and leisure travel. Dwindling trade flow also affected cargo revenues.

The International Air Transport Association has said that global airlines will lose 4.7 billion US dollars this year as a result of the economic crisis alone.

While advance bookings indicate the drop in demand was stabilising, recovery could be set back by uncertainties due to the recent outbreak of swine flu, SIA said.

"In the near term, promotional pricing and reduced business travel will keep revenue under pressure," it said in a statement.

"On the other hand, with (the) price of jet fuel currently at less than half what it was during last year's peak... there will be relief for expenditure."

For the full year, net profit declined 48.20 percent to 1.06 billion dollars. Full-year revenue came in at nearly 16 billion dollars, up slightly from 15.972 billion dollars the year before.

SIA suffered its first ever net loss in the three months to June 2003 after the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) health outbreak grounded travel in East Asia. The net loss came in at 312 million dollars at that time.

Shukor Yusof, an aviation analyst with Standard and Poor's, said he was surprised by the extent of the profit plunge and said SIA may have to review its orders for the double-decker Airbus A380 and cut staff.

"It reinforces the severity of the situation," he told AFP.

"I would imagine that they would have to re-examine whether they will have to further cut capacity and also whether the need would arise to lay people off."

Despite the drastic fall in net profit, however, SIA fared better than other regional airlines.

Japan Airlines, Asia's largest carrier, this month reported a net loss of 63.2 billion yen (664.30 million US) for the 12 months through March, against a profit of 16.9 billion yen the previous year.

It also predicted a net loss of 63 billion yen for the current year to March.

Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific last month announced a 22 percent drop in first-quarter revenue, just weeks after it said it had lost more than a billion US dollars in 2008, the company's first full-year loss in a decade.

Australia's Qantas last month announced more job cuts, more than halved its profit forecast and deferred new plane orders, saying it had no choice if it hoped to weather the global downturn.

SIA carrier has implemented several cost-cutting measures to deal with the crisis, including shorter work months and grounding some of its planes.

SIA shares slid 52 cents to 11.60 on Friday before the announcement was made.

[kueytoc]

Oil soars above 68 dollars to seven-month high

AFP - Tuesday, June 2

NEW YORK (AFP) - – Crude oil prices soared Monday above 68 dollars a barrel for the first time in seven months, boosted by higher Chinese output, a weak US currency and rising equity markets, traders said.

New York's main futures contract, light sweet crude for July delivery, shot up to 68.68 dollars on the back of a Wall Street stock surge before ending at 68.58 dollars, up by 2.27 dollars from Friday's close.

The price levels were last reached at the end of October.

London Brent North Sea crude for delivery in July bounced as high as 68.03 dollars a barrel before ending at 67.97 dollars, up 2.45 dollars from Friday.

Prices climbed largely due to the weak dollar, said Antoine Halff of Newedge Group.

"The increase is not unique to the oil sector, it affects all raw materials. The investment funds in particular are investing in commodities as a protection against the dollar or to manage the fears of inflation," he said.

A weak US currency makes dollar-priced oil cheaper for holders of stronger currencies and, in turn, tends to stimulate demand and push prices higher.

The euro jumped above 1.42 dollars for the first time this year, as rebounding global stock markets persuaded investors to switch away from the safe-haven US currency, dealers said.

BetOnMarkets analyst Dave Evans said the price increases also stemmed from news that the manufacturing sector in China expanded for a third month.

"China, the world's second-biggest energy consumer, has been showing signs of a recovery over the last two months. There is a very strong chance of oil prices testing the 70-dollar level," he said.

China's manufacturing activity expansion in May, based on data released Monday, gave added hopes for a global economic recovery.

The official Purchasing Managers' Index, or PMI, for the manufacturing sector pulled back slightly to 53.1 in May, down from 53.5 in April, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said in a statement on its website.

A reading above 50 means the sector is expanding, while a reading below 50 indicates an overall decline.

Meanwhile, the Saudi cabinet affirmed Monday that the world's biggest oil exporter sees 75 to 80 dollars a barrel as a "fair" price for crude, information minister Abdulaziz Khoja said.

The Council of Ministers in its weekly meeting on Monday reviewed the results of last week's OPEC meeting, in which the 12-member oil cartel decided to keep its output unchanged amid surging prices, Khoja said according to a report by the state news agency SPA.

Despite recent gains, oil prices remain far below the record peaks of above 147 dollars a barrel forged in July 2008. A global economic downturn has since slashed the world's appetite for energy.

"We said last fall, as oil prices were falling towards 30 dollars, that they would quickly recover because the elements that drove them to 147 dollars had not been addressed," said John Kilduff at MF Global.

"We never thought, however, that a price rebound would occur so fast, particularly with the pronouncements of doom and gloom that seemed to pervade all financial reportage a few months ago," he said.

[kueytoc]

Singapore economy seen shrinking 6.5 pct in 2009

AP - Wednesday, June 10

SINGAPORE - Singapore analysts cut forecasts for 2009 economic growth _ and now expect a deeper recession _ as the global slowdown hurts demand for the city-state's exports.

The country's gross domestic product will likely shrink 6.5 percent this year, according to the median forecast of 19 economists in a quarterly survey that the central bank released Wednesday.

In the previous survey in March, analysts had expected the economy to contract 4.9 percent this year.

But they boosted their forecast for 2010 growth to a 4.2 percent expansion from 3.3 percent.

Analysts foresee manufacturing leading this year's decline by falling 14 percent, while financial services drop 4.1 percent and wholesale and retail trade slide 11 percent.

Construction, buoyed by a $13 billion government stimulus package announced in January, is the only sector analysts expect to grow this year, up 16 percent.

Analysts said the economy will likely shrink 7.7 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, more than their 6.9 percent forecast in March, said the central bank, known as the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

The analysts expect the economy to contract 6.6 percent in the third quarter and 1.2 percent in the fourth quarter.

Non-oil exports, which account for about 60 percent of the Singapore's GDP, plummeted 26 percent in the first quarter as demand from the U.S, Europe and Japan dried up. Analysts expect non-oil exports to fall 14.5 percent this year.

The economy fell a seasonally adjusted, annualized 14.6 percent in the first quarter from the previous quarter and slid 10.1 percent from a year earlier. The government expects the economy to contract between 6 percent and 9 percent this year.

Prices will likely fall 0.5 percent this year compared to a forecast of an increase of 0.2 percent in March, the survey showed. The inflation rate was 6.5 percent last year.

The unemployment rate will probably jump to 4.2 percent this year from 2.6 percent, according to the analyst survey.

[kueytoc]

Singapore struggles, waiting for West to rebound

By ALEX KENNEDY, Associated Press Writer AP - Friday, June 12

SINGAPORE - This speck on the map leapt from poverty to First World riches in a generation. Now its halcyon years of breakneck growth may be over.

Ask none other than Lee Kuan Yew, the authoritarian statesman who oversaw Singapore's transformation from a malarial outpost of the British Empire to a modern city-state churning out hard-drives, medicines and deepwater oil rigs for export.

Premier from 1959 to 1990, he squashed dissent and steered the tropical island into embracing globalization. It reaped the economic benefits, becoming the world's fourth-richest country as Western consumers sent global trade soaring.

Now Singapore's top customers _ the U.S., Japan and Europe _ are mired in the biggest global slump since World War II and may take years to recover their normal growth.

Lee, currently an adviser to his son, prime minister Lee Hsien Loong, acknowledges it's improbable that China along with other Asian nations can pick up the slack. It will take "decades" for Asians to shake off their traditional caution and tendency to save rather than spend, he says.

"The Chinese always believe there may be an earthquake. So do the Japanese," Lee said last month in Japan.

"We'll have to wait for the American economy," he said.

Fellow Asian "tigers" Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea have also been hammered by the global crisis. But Singapore is the most dependent on trade, with exports equal to a whopping 185 percent of gross domestic product.

As a result, the Southeast Asian city-state is reeling from its deepest recession since splitting from a short-lived federation with neighboring Malaysia in 1965. The International Monetary Fund forecasts GDP to shrink 10 percent in 2009, the most of any major Asian economy.

So far, there are few signs the downturn is threatening the ruling party's five-decade hold on power. Singapore _ known for its ban on chewing gum sales and canings for crimes some countries would rule as minor _ strictly controls public speech and assembly though has become socially more liberal and allowed greater artistic freedom in recent years.

The People's Action Party, which engineered yearly growth averaging 7.7 percent since 1961, is also doing what it can to soften the blows.

Officials are aiming to boost tourism with two casinos and promoting the island as a private banking haven for wealthy foreigners but concede no amount of tinkering can eliminate the tiny nation's weaknesses.

Singapore's 4.8 million population, 683 square kilometers of land _ a fourth the size of Luxembourg _ and lack of natural resources leave it with little choice but to sway with the global winds of trade and finance.

A speech by the prime minister this week welcomed the creation of a high-level committee to plot fresh directions for the economy. Yet it offered nothing new by touting Singapore as a base for corporate head offices and center for biotechnology research and drugs production.

Considerable hopes are also pinned on financial services as a bilingual Chinese-English work force and political stability have spawned a busy wealth management sector. But after years of promoting its finance industry, Singapore does not yet rival Hong Kong as a regional financial center.

"The road ahead will be difficult. First we have to see through this global economic storm. Beyond that, we face a new world," Lee Hsien Loong said.

Many economists expect the U.S. to emerge from recession later this year, but say the strength of the recovery is uncertain. U.S. consumer spending may take several years to return to pre-crisis levels as Americans pay down debt and build savings.

"U.S. consumers seem to be undergoing a change in mind-set for the first time in a generation or two," said Quentin Fitzsimmons, a fund manager for London-based Threadneedle. "You shouldn't look to the U.S. consumer to lead us out of this recession."

The collapse in demand for Singapore's exports is already putting pressure on wages. Growth in real household incomes slowed to 5.7 percent in 2008 from 7.5 percent the previous year while incomes of the bottom 10 percent of households stagnated even with increased government aid for the poor.

GDP per person this year is expected to slide to about $32,000 from nearly $37,700 last year.

Analysts at Credit Suisse predict an exodus of 200,000 foreign professionals and other workers from the island, adding to a collapse in house prices.

Singaporeans still flock to the swanky malls that line Orchard Road, a shopping strip famous in the region. But they mostly eyeball the luxury goods rather than buy.

"Right now, I don't feel like I can afford Fendi," said Yolanda Wong, a 27-year-old accountant, as she window shopped at the Italian designer fashion store. "I still have my job, but when I see other people losing their jobs or taking pay cuts, it makes me afraid and want to save," she said.

Freddie Lim, manager of a boutique selling watches with prices as high as $1 million Singapore dollars ($692,000), said sales are down 20 to 30 percent.

"Our regular customers, who may buy several watches a year when the economy is good, are telling us they are worried about the future and putting off big purchases. People say this downturn could last three years," he said.

The government has sought to stem layoffs and keep living standards from slipping by dipping into its $174 billion pot of international reserves for the first time to help finance a $13 billion fiscal stimulus package. It is subsidizing the wages of the lowest paid workers.

Officials, meanwhile, have pledged to remain faithful to low-tax policies that have successfully attracted foreign investment.

Even so, the return of Singapore's once booming growth hinges on the big developed economies bouncing back strongly in the next two years, said Selena Ling, an economist with OCBC, a leading bank in Singapore.

"The golden age of growth may be past," she said.

[kueytoc]

Singapore's GIC names new president, mgt reshuffle

Reuters - 1 hour 47 minutes ago

* Lim Siong Guan will also chair GIC Asset Management

* Lee Ek Tieng to retire as chairman of GIC Asset Management

* Unit is responsible for investments, strategy

* Richard Hu to step down as chairman of GIC Real Estate

SINGAPORE, June 18 - The Government of Singapore Investment Corp , which manages an estimated $200 billion-plus in assets, on Thursday named Lim Siong Guan as its group president from July 1.

Lim, a former head of Singapore's civil service, will also be chairman of GIC Asset Management, the largest of its three operating units and responsible for investments in equities, fixed income, foreign currencies and natural resources. The unit is also responsible for the fund's absolute returns strategies.

Lim, 62, will take charge of organisational development at GIC Asset Management as well as sister units GIC Real Estate, which handles property, and GIC Special Investments, which takes care of private equity and infrastructure investments.

"The management changes will enable GIC to operate more effectively on an integrated basis," GIC Deputy Chairman and Executive Director Tony Tan said in a statement.

GIC, which manages Singapore's foreign currency reserves, has ploughed billions into Citigroup <C.N> and UBS <UBSN.VX> and has said it will stick with its investments despite smaller sovereign wealth fund Temasek's [TEM.UL] recent move to offload shares in Bank of America <BAC.N> and Barclays <BARC.L>.

Singapore's two funds have suffered from the global market turmoil, with GIC's portfolio falling 25 percent from a peak estimated at $300 billion, while Temasek's assets declined by 31 percent during March-November last year.

Lee Ek Tieng, 75, another former civil service head, will retire as chairman of GIC Asset Management, while former finance minister Richard Hu, 82, will step down as chairman of GIC Real Estate.

Tan will replace Hu as chairman of GIC Real Estate.

GIC website: www.gic.com.sg

[kueytoc]

Experts expect number of marriages to go up during economic downturn

Channel NewsAsia - Friday, June 19

SINGAPORE : Long—term commitment may be far from the minds of most people during this period of downturn but for some, now is as good a time to settle down.

28—year—old civil servant Grace Cheung and 30—year—old business analyst Jang Chee Ming started making plans for their wedding at the end of last year, just when the financial meltdown was taking effect.

Although they were a little worried about finances at first, recession or not, they are still going ahead with their wedding, to be held in January next year.

Chee Ming said: "I think one piece of advice for those who are planning like us is to plan within your means. I think that is the most important bit, be it economic boom time or recession time, but of course during recession time, you have to be more sensitive to the dollars and cents."

In fact, the couple said that now is a good time as companies are offering discounts to bring in business. They said they were quoted a cheaper rate for their dinner at a popular hotel in downtown Marina Bay.

Buying a home may also be cheaper, as property prices have gone down.

But the couple also offered another theory for those wanting to get hitched suring this period — the possibility of a Dragon Baby in 2012. Singapore usually sees a spike in birth rates during Year of the Dragon, traditionally seen as an auspicious birth sign.

During the Asian Financial crisis in 1999, Singapore registered 25,648 marriages, about 10 per cent more than marriages registered during the economically—buoyant years of 2005 and 2006.

Experts said people tend to seek comfort and companionship during times of crisis, and this feeling tends to override even financial considerations.

Associate Professor Norman Li, School of Social Sciences, Singapore Management University, said: "At a conscious level, people think that ’I do not have enough money...(having) children, family...could be more expensive’, but on a deeper psychological level, people want to connect, they want to hold on and they want to protect, and they want to be with other people.

"I do know that after 911 (September 11 attacks), there were more marriages immediately after. People were reaching out to form new friendships, connect with old friendships, family and relationship partners as well, and marriages were on the rise.

"People seem to want to hold on to what they have in terms of, let’s say, investments. So in an economic downturn, people channel their money towards safe investments, they want to find something and lock it in. They do not want to lose anything further.

"It is the same kind of thing with people. So in relationships, people who are dating want to be more committed, and people who are in a long—term relationship want to get married, they want to lock in as something safe, whoever they have right now."

And while dating agencies said they are seeing fewer clients, they expect business to stabilise.

Agencies Channel NewsAsia spoke with said they saw about a 10 per cent dip in business for the month of May. They attribute it to the twin effect of the financial crisis and fewer people socialising because of the H1N1 flu.

Violet Lim, founder, Lunch Actually, said: "For the guys, if they are retrenched or they lost their jobs, they tend to like to concentrate at the task at hand, which is looking for a new job to stabilise their career. But there might be some ladies, since they are currently out of job or they are on a long break, maybe they feel that ’I should put my career on hold to put more focus to look for a relationship’."

And while some families may be under pressure coping with the downturn, leading to strains in relationships, Associate Professor Li said divorce rates may actually go down.

He said: "In times of economic downturn, a lot of families have to stick together. They do not have the option of actually breaking up and leaving, because that can actually be more costly. People tend to think they have more options at their disposal when times are good, resources are plentiful, you have more many coming in, you can do this, do that, but now, people are tightening up and being more conservative, so getting divorced is, I think, a more risky strategy."

The number of divorces has remained relatively constant over the past three years up till 2008, hovering at around 7,000.

However, opinions are divided over whether couples getting married this year had planned to do so, or whether they were pushed to take the next step because of the financial crisis, but there may be some truth to people placing more value on relationships because of uncertain times.

As for Grace and Chee Ming’s expectations on red packets at their wedding dinner, Grace said: "We do not expect much in return. We just wanted it to be a celebration and a gathering for the people that we love and we are close to."

— CNA/ms

[kueytoc]

Singapore economy soars 20 percent in 2nd quarter

Singapore says economy jumps 20 percent in second quarter, raises 2009 growth forecast

On Monday July 13, 2009, 8:44 pm EDT

SINGAPORE (AP) -- Singapore's economy grew for the first time in a year, soaring 20 percent in the second quarter, the government said Tuesday, as the country emerges from its worst-ever recession.

Gross domestic product jumped an annualized, seasonally adjusted 20.4 percent in the three months through June, compared with the previous quarter, the Trade and Industry Ministry said in a statement. It said GDP fell 3.7 percent compared to the same period a year earlier.

The ministry said it now expects the economy to shrink between 4 percent and 6 percent this year, up from a previous forecast of a contraction between 6 percent and 9 percent.

"The revised 2009 forecast reflects the less severe contraction in the first half of the year, while the underlying economic conditions remain weak," the ministry said.

Singapore's economy, which relies on exports, finance and tourism, had contracted the previous four quarters, with an annualized, seasonally adjusted 16.4 percent drop in the October-December period marking its deepest recession since splitting from Malaysia in 1965.

The ministry said the economy fell an annualized, seasonally adjusted 12.7 percent in the first quarter, which is revised up from an initial estimate in April of a 19.7 percent contraction.

A surge in pharmaceutical production helped boost growth in the second quarter. Manufacturing fell 1.5 percent from a year ago compared to a 24 percent contraction in the first quarter, the ministry said. Construction rose 18 percent in the second quarter while services dropped 5.1 percent.

"A sizable part of Singapore's manufacturing uptick came from a spike in biomedical manufacturing output and electronics inventory restocking, both of which may not be sustained," the ministry said.

[kueytoc]

NTUC says slowdown in GDP contraction does not mean recovery in sight

Channel NewsAsia - Wednesday, July 15

SINGAPORE: Singapore’s economy has pulled out of a technical recession, after four straight quarters of contraction.

Advance estimates showed that on a seasonally adjusted annualised basis, real GDP in the second quarter rose by 20.4% compared to the first quarter. However, the economy contracted by 3.7% on—year in the second quarter.

The government has revised its GDP forecast for the year upwards to a contraction of 4 to 6 per cent, against its earlier forecast for a 6 to 9 per cent shrinkage.

But the National Trades Union Congress (NTUC) said a full recovery is not yet in sight, and has urged firms and workers to remain vigilant.

NTUC deputy secretary—general, Heng Chee How, said: "If you ask the companies on the ground — whether manufacturing or services — they will actually tell you that compared to the first quarter of this year, in the second quarter towards the middle of the year, they have better visibility, so some manufacturing companies say they now have orders up to July or September.

"But they will also tell you that... we cannot assume that just because the second quarter is better than the first, therefore the third and the fourth will be better than the second."

The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) also continues to expect a weak recovery with downside risks for the rest of the year.

"If you look at the MTI forecast, they are now revising it (2009 GDP outlook) to minus four to minus six percent contraction. That, compared to any year, is still a very serious recession. I think we should work on that basis and continue to invest in our skills and capability as it is the competitiveness that will see us through," said Mr Heng.

The labour movement said a key priority for the tripartite partners is to ensure that companies continue to take training and retraining seriously.

Hence, the tripartite teams will continue to visit the industries and companies to emphasise the importance of the Skills Programme for Upgrading and Resilience (SPUR) and how they can take advantage of it.

CNA/ir