Based on my usage and the rated livespan of MH bulbs which is about 10K~20K hours before 30% light fall off, I think I will not need to change the bulbs for a couple of years...
Daily, I only on my MH for 3 hours so in a year I on it for 1,095 hrs. If assuming that I need to change it every 5,000 hrs, the MH bulbs will still last me ard 4 yrs+.
In fact, if you look at the test done on a couple of MH bulbs a couple of years back by reef keeping magazine, you will find that the light decreases by ard 30% after 2,920 hrs on average.
http://reefkeeping.com/issues/2007-04/ac/index.php